GLOSSARY

Every metric in the research suite, defined. If a number surprises you, the definition is the first place to look.

VOLUME & OPPORTUNITY

ATT / YDS / TD / 1D: Official rushing counting stats from nflverse weekly player data. Regular season only, everywhere on this site.
i5 Carries: Carries snapped inside the opponent 5-yard line — the highest-value touches in fantasy.
RZ10 Carries: Carries inside the opponent 10-yard line.
GTG Carries: Goal-to-go carries.
Target Share (TGT%): Player targets divided by team targets, averaged over the player’s active weeks.
Air-Yards Share (AY%): Player air yards divided by team air yards, averaged over active weeks.
WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share.
aDOT: Average depth of target, in air yards past the line of scrimmage.
RZ / EZ / Deep Targets: Targets inside the 20, thrown into the end zone, and of 20+ air yards.
Snap %: Offensive snap share, from PFR snap counts via nflverse.

EFFICIENCY

YPC: Yards per carry.
Stuff %: Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Success %: Share of plays with positive expected points added (EPA > 0).
EPA/ATT, EPA/DB: Expected points added per rush attempt or per dropback, from nflfastR play-by-play.
Explosive %: Share of carries gaining 10+ yards.
Catch %: Receptions per target.
YAC / xYAC: Yards after catch, and nflfastR’s modeled expected yards after catch for the same receptions.
CPOE: Completion percentage over expected (nflfastR).

EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS (XFP)

XFP: What an average player would score on this player’s exact opportunities. Every carry is valued by expected yards and touchdown probability for its down, distance, and field position; every target by catch probability, expected yards (air yards plus nflfastR expected YAC), and touchdown probability for its depth and field zone. Rate tables are fit from 2021–2024 play-by-play, bucketed — no black-box model. QB passing opportunity is valued the same way from the passer’s side.
FPOE: Fantasy points over expected: actual half-PPR points minus half-PPR XFP. Sustained positive FPOE is skill; extreme FPOE in either direction tends to regress.

CONTACT & TRACKING (PFR / NGS)

YBC/ATT, YAC/ATT: Yards before and after contact per attempt, from Pro-Football-Reference advanced stats.
Broken Tackles: Broken/missed tackles forced (PFR).
RYOE/ATT: Rush yards over expected per attempt, from NFL Next Gen Stats.
8-Man %: Share of carries against 8+ defenders in the box (NGS).
Separation / Cushion: Average yards of separation at the catch point and cushion at the snap (NGS).
TTT / AGG%: Average time to throw and aggressiveness — share of throws into tight windows (NGS).

ROUTES (FTN)

Routes / Route %: Routes run, and routes divided by team dropbacks in the player’s games. Derived from FTN participation data (on the field for a dropback = a route) — the standard public approximation. Available for completed seasons from 2023 on; we never show partial-season route data.
TPRR / YPRR: Targets and receiving yards per route run — the strongest single receiver predictors we track.

FFF COMPOSITES

Weighted Opportunity Score: Position-specific weighting of high-value touches (for RBs: carries + 2× i5 carries + 1.5× targets + 1× RZ10 carries, per game), scaled 0–100 against the position.
Bellcow Index: Blend of snap share (40%), rush-attempt share (40%), and RB target share (20%), scaled 0–100.
Y2 Breakout Score: For WRs entering year two: rookie TPRR against the 0.22 breakout benchmark, plus rookie aDOT, late-season target-share trend, and vacated targets from roster movement.
Regression Flags: 300+ carry seasons, touchdown totals well above expectation, and unsustainable YAC — each flag carries a one-line explanation where it appears.

DATA & ATTRIBUTION

All stats are built from public nflverse data releases: play-by-play and weekly player stats (nflfastR), snap counts and advanced stats (Pro-Football-Reference), Next Gen Stats weekly data, and FTN charting. Route and charting data is FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Huge thanks to the nflverse maintainers — this section doesn't exist without them. Numbers cover the regular season only and are updated nightly during the season.

Data: nflverse · Route data: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0) · Updated nightly in season.

VOLUME & OPPORTUNITY

ATT / YDS / TD / 1D

Official rushing counting stats from nflverse weekly player data. Regular season only, everywhere on this site.

i5 Carries

Carries snapped inside the opponent 5-yard line — the highest-value touches in fantasy.

RZ10 Carries

Carries inside the opponent 10-yard line.

GTG Carries

Goal-to-go carries.

Target Share (TGT%)

Player targets divided by team targets, averaged over the player’s active weeks.

Air-Yards Share (AY%)

Player air yards divided by team air yards, averaged over active weeks.

WOPR

Weighted Opportunity Rating: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share.

aDOT

Average depth of target, in air yards past the line of scrimmage.

RZ / EZ / Deep Targets

Targets inside the 20, thrown into the end zone, and of 20+ air yards.

Snap %

Offensive snap share, from PFR snap counts via nflverse.

EFFICIENCY

YPC

Yards per carry.

Stuff %

Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Success %

Share of plays with positive expected points added (EPA > 0).

EPA/ATT, EPA/DB

Expected points added per rush attempt or per dropback, from nflfastR play-by-play.

Explosive %

Share of carries gaining 10+ yards.

Catch %

Receptions per target.

YAC / xYAC

Yards after catch, and nflfastR’s modeled expected yards after catch for the same receptions.

CPOE

Completion percentage over expected (nflfastR).

EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS (XFP)

XFP

What an average player would score on this player’s exact opportunities. Every carry is valued by expected yards and touchdown probability for its down, distance, and field position; every target by catch probability, expected yards (air yards plus nflfastR expected YAC), and touchdown probability for its depth and field zone. Rate tables are fit from 2021–2024 play-by-play, bucketed — no black-box model. QB passing opportunity is valued the same way from the passer’s side.

FPOE

Fantasy points over expected: actual half-PPR points minus half-PPR XFP. Sustained positive FPOE is skill; extreme FPOE in either direction tends to regress.

CONTACT & TRACKING (PFR / NGS)

YBC/ATT, YAC/ATT

Yards before and after contact per attempt, from Pro-Football-Reference advanced stats.

Broken Tackles

Broken/missed tackles forced (PFR).

RYOE/ATT

Rush yards over expected per attempt, from NFL Next Gen Stats.

8-Man %

Share of carries against 8+ defenders in the box (NGS).

Separation / Cushion

Average yards of separation at the catch point and cushion at the snap (NGS).

TTT / AGG%

Average time to throw and aggressiveness — share of throws into tight windows (NGS).

ROUTES (FTN)

Routes / Route %

Routes run, and routes divided by team dropbacks in the player’s games. Derived from FTN participation data (on the field for a dropback = a route) — the standard public approximation. Available for completed seasons from 2023 on; we never show partial-season route data.

TPRR / YPRR

Targets and receiving yards per route run — the strongest single receiver predictors we track.

FFF COMPOSITES

Weighted Opportunity Score

Position-specific weighting of high-value touches (for RBs: carries + 2× i5 carries + 1.5× targets + 1× RZ10 carries, per game), scaled 0–100 against the position.

Bellcow Index

Blend of snap share (40%), rush-attempt share (40%), and RB target share (20%), scaled 0–100.

Y2 Breakout Score

For WRs entering year two: rookie TPRR against the 0.22 breakout benchmark, plus rookie aDOT, late-season target-share trend, and vacated targets from roster movement.

Regression Flags

300+ carry seasons, touchdown totals well above expectation, and unsustainable YAC — each flag carries a one-line explanation where it appears.

DATA & ATTRIBUTION