GLOSSARY
Every metric in the research suite, defined. If a number surprises you, the definition is the first place to look.
VOLUME & OPPORTUNITY
- ATT / YDS / TD / 1D
- Official rushing counting stats from nflverse weekly player data. Regular season only, everywhere on this site.
- i5 Carries
- Carries snapped inside the opponent 5-yard line — the highest-value touches in fantasy.
- RZ10 Carries
- Carries inside the opponent 10-yard line.
- GTG Carries
- Goal-to-go carries.
- Target Share (TGT%)
- Player targets divided by team targets, averaged over the player’s active weeks.
- Air-Yards Share (AY%)
- Player air yards divided by team air yards, averaged over active weeks.
- WOPR
- Weighted Opportunity Rating: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share.
- aDOT
- Average depth of target, in air yards past the line of scrimmage.
- RZ / EZ / Deep Targets
- Targets inside the 20, thrown into the end zone, and of 20+ air yards.
- Snap %
- Offensive snap share, from PFR snap counts via nflverse.
EFFICIENCY
- YPC
- Yards per carry.
- Stuff %
- Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
- Success %
- Share of plays with positive expected points added (EPA > 0).
- EPA/ATT, EPA/DB
- Expected points added per rush attempt or per dropback, from nflfastR play-by-play.
- Explosive %
- Share of carries gaining 10+ yards.
- Catch %
- Receptions per target.
- YAC / xYAC
- Yards after catch, and nflfastR’s modeled expected yards after catch for the same receptions.
- CPOE
- Completion percentage over expected (nflfastR).
EXPECTED FANTASY POINTS (XFP)
- XFP
- What an average player would score on this player’s exact opportunities. Every carry is valued by expected yards and touchdown probability for its down, distance, and field position; every target by catch probability, expected yards (air yards plus nflfastR expected YAC), and touchdown probability for its depth and field zone. Rate tables are fit from 2021–2024 play-by-play, bucketed — no black-box model. QB passing opportunity is valued the same way from the passer’s side.
- FPOE
- Fantasy points over expected: actual half-PPR points minus half-PPR XFP. Sustained positive FPOE is skill; extreme FPOE in either direction tends to regress.
CONTACT & TRACKING (PFR / NGS)
- YBC/ATT, YAC/ATT
- Yards before and after contact per attempt, from Pro-Football-Reference advanced stats.
- Broken Tackles
- Broken/missed tackles forced (PFR).
- RYOE/ATT
- Rush yards over expected per attempt, from NFL Next Gen Stats.
- 8-Man %
- Share of carries against 8+ defenders in the box (NGS).
- Separation / Cushion
- Average yards of separation at the catch point and cushion at the snap (NGS).
- TTT / AGG%
- Average time to throw and aggressiveness — share of throws into tight windows (NGS).
ROUTES (FTN)
- Routes / Route %
- Routes run, and routes divided by team dropbacks in the player’s games. Derived from FTN participation data (on the field for a dropback = a route) — the standard public approximation. Available for completed seasons from 2023 on; we never show partial-season route data.
- TPRR / YPRR
- Targets and receiving yards per route run — the strongest single receiver predictors we track.
FFF COMPOSITES
- Weighted Opportunity Score
- Position-specific weighting of high-value touches (for RBs: carries + 2× i5 carries + 1.5× targets + 1× RZ10 carries, per game), scaled 0–100 against the position.
- Bellcow Index
- Blend of snap share (40%), rush-attempt share (40%), and RB target share (20%), scaled 0–100.
- Y2 Breakout Score
- For WRs entering year two: rookie TPRR against the 0.22 breakout benchmark, plus rookie aDOT, late-season target-share trend, and vacated targets from roster movement.
- Regression Flags
- 300+ carry seasons, touchdown totals well above expectation, and unsustainable YAC — each flag carries a one-line explanation where it appears.
DATA & ATTRIBUTION
All stats are built from public nflverse data releases: play-by-play and weekly player stats (nflfastR), snap counts and advanced stats (Pro-Football-Reference), Next Gen Stats weekly data, and FTN charting. Route and charting data is FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Huge thanks to the nflverse maintainers — this section doesn't exist without them. Numbers cover the regular season only and are updated nightly during the season.
Data: nflverse · Route data: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0) · Updated nightly in season.